21 Sep 49 U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts Yield Over 6% In Late September
Any collection of dividend stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, these US exchange sourced real estate investment trust stocks are perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here is the September 17 data for 49 top dividend-paying net gain REITs as documented by YCharts.
The Ides of March plunge in the stock market took its toll on US REITs. Only one top ten US REIT by yield from March was back in the top 10 for April. However, the drop in prices in all top 50 US REITs (listed by yield) did make the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more affordable for first-time investors. A rapid recovery in market prices partially closed that window of first-time buying opportunity.
As of June 9, the record showed all 49 top-yield REITs living up to the dogcatcher ideal of producing enough annual dividend from $1k invested to buy one or more shares of their stock.
The July 29 poll showed all 43 top REITs for August living the dream of providing annual dividends from $1k invested sufficient to buy one or more shares of the target stock.
As of August 26, the poll found all 46 producing enough annual dividend from $1k invested to buy one or more shares of their stock.
This survey from September 17 shows 46 of 49 sporting enough dividend from a $1k investment to buy one or more shares of stock.
To learn which of these September 46 are ‘safer’ dividend dogs, click here after September 22 to find the Dividend Dogcatcher marketplace follow-up ‘safer’ REIT dividend stock summary on a free trial!
Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 20.3% To 149.61% Net Gains By Top 10 US REITs Come Late September 2021
Five of 10 top dividend-yielding US Real Estate Investment Trust stocks found their way into the top 10 gainers for the coming year based on analyst one-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below.) Thus, our yield-based forecast for REIT stocks was certified 50% accurate by broker target forecasts.
Projections of estimated dividend returns from $1k invested in each of the highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2020-21 data points. Note: Target prices from single analysts were not applied (n/a). 10 probable profit-generating trades projected by brokers to September 17, 2021 were:
Retail Value Inc. (RVI) netted $1,496.10 based on a median target price estimate from two analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for RVI.
City Office REIT Inc. (CIO) was projected to net $479.07 based on dividends, plus a median of target price estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 16% more than the market as a whole.
Ladder Capital Corp. (LADR) made the list with a projected net gain of $474.11, based on a median of target price estimates from six analysts, plus their estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 133% more than the market as a whole.
Saul Centers Inc. (BFS) netted $472.26 based on a median target price estimate from three analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 9% less than the market as a whole.
Office Properties Income (OPI) was found to net $344.18 based on the median target price estimate from six analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 16% greater than the market as a whole.
Two Harbors Investment (TWO) was projected to net $333.30, based on a median of target price estimates from eight analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 61% more than the market as a whole.
Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL) was projected to net $329.24, based on dividends plus a median target estimate from seven brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 7% greater than the market as a whole.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) was projected to net $231.31 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate’s risk/volatility 19% greater than the market as a whole.
Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) was projected to net $231.31 based on dividends, plus target price estimates from eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 41% more than the market as a whole.
Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD) was projected to net $203.03, based on the median of target price estimates from three analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 2% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain for these 10 was estimated at 45.99% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 97% greater than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs.”
34 Top US REITs By Target Gains
Top 49 US REITs By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Yield Metrics Parsed 10 Top US REITs
Top 10 US Real Estate Investment Trusts as selected 9/17/20 by yield represented just two of nine constituent industries.
At the top, the first of seven mortgage REIT industry representatives in the top 10 claimed the first, fourth through seventh, ninth, and tenth places: Two Harbors Investment , Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) , Chimera Investment Corp. (CIM) , Commercial Real Estate Corp. (ACRE) , Starwood Property Trust Inc. , Ladder Capital Corp. ; Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. .
In second, third and eighth places were the retail REITs, Klepierre (OTCPK:KLPEF) , Retail Value Inc. , and Brookfield Property REIT Inc. (BPYU)  to complete the top ten Late September US REITs list by yield.
Actionable Conclusions: (21) Top 10 US REITs Reported 12.4% To 134.06% Price Upsides To September 17, 2021, and (22) Five Downsides Of -0.88%-6.92% Were Flagged By Broker Target Estimates
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield “dog” metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.
Broker Targets Predicted A 21.25% Disadvantage For Five Highest Yield, Lowest Priced of Top 10 US REITs To September 2021
10 top US REITs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking. The list was limited to stocks reporting positive total annual returns.
As noted above, 10 Real Estate top gainers selected 9/17/20 showing the highest dividend yields represented just two of nine industries constituting the REIT sector, according to YCharts.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Charted Five Lowest Priced Of the Top 10 Highest-Yield US REIT Dogs (23) Delivering 28.41% Vs. (24) 36.08% Net Gains by All 10, Come September 2021
$5k invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top 10 REIT kennel by yield were predicted by analyst one-year targets to deliver 27.39% LESS gain than $5k invested as $.5k in all 10. The seventh lowest priced of 10 Real Estate top yield equities, Retail Value Inc., was projected to gain 149.61% per broker target price reckoning.
The five lowest-priced top yield US REITs as of September 17 were: Two Harbors Investment Corp., Ladder Capital Corp., Chimera Investment Corp., Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc., Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp., with prices ranging from $5.33 to $10.16.
Five higher-priced top gain REITs were: Brookfield Property REIT Inc., Retail Value Inc., Klepierre, Starwood Property Trust Inc., Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc., whose prices ranged from $11.92 to $23.65.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of 10 reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
If somehow you missed the suggestion of which stocks are ripe for picking at the start of this article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:
As of September 17, the September poll shows 46 of 49 sporting enough dividend from a $1k investment to buy one or more shares of stock.
Many investors regard this condition as a buy signal.
To learn which of these September 46 are ‘safer’ dividend dogs, click here after September 21 and read the Dividend Dogcatcher marketplace follow-up ‘safer’ REIT dividend stock summary on a free trial!
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your United States Exchange Real Estate Investment Trust stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com, YCharts.com, finance.yahoo.com, analyst median target price by YCharts. Dog photo: mypetsies.com.
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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.